A recent article that called my attention have taken my perception of the steps predicted on one of Michael Melvin papers when evaluating currency investment, for which benchmarks lay on Momentum, PPP and Carry, but I'm not sure that avid investors follow this principles in order to minimize investment draw downs. I opt to think that most likely the common initial move is very similar to average investors: splitting rationale into "which industry" to invest in and then "which company".
Both decisions would be defined by different perceptions. Market/industry dynamics, Biz cycles and Average ROI would have to present a "Smooth Earnings" outlook to tempt the investor to tag along the wagon. When the issue is which company to Run-On with, there is several variables and individual characteristics that will come to effect to define either which procedure to use when selecting. but either ways cash flows, growth earnings, short and long term staged predictions, etc.
This analysis when short-viewed within auto industry, specifically U.S. sales market latest report for February, leaves an interesting space for forecasts and mixed decisions for some investors and industry players when predicting where to focus and establish growth strategies.
Table sorted by year-to-date sales
General Motors Co.††_______207,028________141,535_46%
Ford Motor Co.†___________156,232________142,006_10%
Toyota Motor Sales_________141,846________100,027_42%
American Honda Motor Co.____98,059_________80,671_22%
Nissan North America_________92,370_________70,189_32%
VW Group Of America________29,315_________24,427_20%
Volvo Cars N.A.______________4,795__________ - ___ -
Jaguar Land Rover N.A._________3,247__________2,793_16%
Saab Cars N.A.________________546__________ - ___ -
U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE TOTAL___993,535_____780,422_27%
Revealing some expected and unexpected share market winners such as Nissan (up 70 percent), GM (64 percent), and Ford (58 percent). After that it's Hyundai-Kia (up 45 percent), Honda (37 percent), Toyota (29 percent) and Chrysler (13 percent), compared with sales market share of previous years.
More details: http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110301/RETAIL01/110309973/1448#ixzz1FQO6f000